A combination of anthropogenic global warming and a moderate warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean by the phenomenon known as El Niño, makes it very likely that 2010 will be a year worldwide warmer than 2009.
Recently published data confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth warmest year in records dating back to 1850.
The latest forecast our climate scientists, shows global temperature is expected to be nearly 0.6 ° C above the 1961-90 average long term. This means it is more likely that 2010 will be the warmest year in instrumental record, beating the previous record year was 1998.
Earlier than that 2010 average global temperature record is not a certainty, especially if the current El Niño unexpectedly low rapidly around the beginning of 2010, or if there was a volcanic eruption. The Met Office forecasts revised during the year 2010 with available observational data.
Looking ahead, the experimental decadal forecasts from the Met Office confirms earlier indications that about half of the years 2010-2019 will be warmer than the warmest year so far observed – 1998.
The year 2009, with a provisional temperature of 14.44 ° C observed, can be compared with identical predicted value of 14.44 ° C.
The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, keeps a record global temperature that is used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Every December or January, the Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the next year.
